A very thoughtful paper, far removed from the knee jerk rantings of some newspaper columnists.
If the 2009 influenza pandemic turns severe, far exceeding the impact of seasonal influenza, early and enhanced surveillance may prove to have bought critical time to prepare a vaccine that could reduce morbidity and mortality. The negative effect on the pork and travel industries, the discrimination some felt for the “crime” of catching a new disease, the mandatory isolation of uninfected people, and the substantial public money invested into pandemic preparations will probably be said to, on balance, have been far better than being caught unprepared for a severe pandemic.
But if this pandemic does not increase in severity, it may signal the need to reassess both the risk assessment and risk management strategies towards emerging infectious diseases. The SARS outbreak showed that large numbers of infected people are not necessary to generate concern and fear over disease. The SARS virus is known to have affected only 8096 people globally, but the fear of infection, involuntary quarantine, travel restrictions and subsequent political antagonisms, and at least $18bn in losses were felt by far more. It was not the virus but the response to it that caused these social and economic harms.
via Calibrated response to emerging infections — Doshi 339: b3471 — BMJ.