We were told that though it was mild because it was novel, it could spread widely and kill a lot of people by virtue of the sheer numbers infected. Later it emerged that people over 50 had some immunity. Although the virus itself was novel, its surface antigens had some similarities to those on H1N1 viruses circulating up to the 1960s. Could this have been spotted sooner?
At a briefing last month Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, London said assessments of the pandemic in the early months were broadly accurate. But he added: “The difficult thing was tracking how many people were being infected. That was critical to tell how severe the virus was. We saw some people dying but we couldn't put those numbers in perspective.” The uncertainty led to predictions that the autumn wave of infections could be up to three times greater than the summer wave. In fact the autumn wave turned out to be about the same size. “The challenge,” said Professor Ferguson, is to develop more rapid diagnosis to overcome the problem of tracking the pandemic. Had we known what we were getting, we would have responded at a lower level.”
So there are lessons to be learned. But it is easy to be wise after the event. As Professor Robert Dingwall, of the University of Nottingham, put it at the same briefing, “Governments are damned if they act and damned if they don’t.”
The flu virus is capricious, the disease elusive, and our remedies imperfect. Far better to be prepared before it than repent after. But every £1bn spent protecting us from swine flu is £1bn not available for other health needs. Could the virologists have given us a clearer idea, sooner, of the true scale of the threat?
Read the whole article via A little knowledge: How research scientists were caught out by swine flu – Health News, Health & Families – The Independent.